![How to Do Niche Keyword Research: Judging Competition (Part 2) [LNIM058]](https://www.latenightim.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/photodune-1233301-typewriter-keywords-xs.jpg)
Hook
You found a list of promising keywords in Part 1. Now the hard question: can you actually rank for any of them? In this episode, I break down how to judge keyword competition using the 80/20 rule. Spoiler: most of the popular methods for evaluating competition are wrong.
What You'll Learn
- Three common ways people judge keyword competition that are misleading
- Why backlinks remain the foundation of Google's ranking algorithm
- How to apply the 80/20 rule to keyword competition analysis
- The difference between on-page and off-page SEO factors
- A practical framework for deciding if you can rank for a keyword
Episode Summary
This is Part 2 of my series on niche keyword research. In Part 1 (Episode 057), we covered how to find potential keywords and determine their popularity. This episode tackles the other half of the equation: judging competition.
I started by debunking three commonly used competition metrics that mislead people:
- Advertiser competition from the Google Keyword Planner tells you how many people are bidding on ads for that keyword, not how hard it is to rank organically. It can hint at commercial intent, but it is not a competition metric.
- Number of competing pages (the total results Google shows) is meaningless. It is like saying the number of joggers in the US is a good way to predict if you can win the Boston Marathon.
- Number of in-title results is slightly better but still unreliable as a standalone metric.
The real key to understanding competition is backlinks. Google's algorithm was founded on the concept of links as votes of confidence. While Google has added hundreds of ranking signals since then, backlinks remain the 80/20 factor. If you want to know whether you can rank for a keyword, you need to look at the backlink profiles of the pages currently ranking for it.
I also covered the basic framework of on-page factors (what is your page about?) versus off-page factors (is your page important?), and why most of your competitive analysis effort should go toward understanding off-page signals.
Key Takeaways
- Advertiser competition is not keyword difficulty. High ad competition means the keyword has commercial value, but it says nothing about how hard it is to rank organically.
- Backlinks are still the 80/20 factor. Despite all of Google's algorithm changes, the number and quality of links pointing to a page remain the strongest predictor of rankings.
- Look at who is ranking, not how many pages exist. Check the actual top 10 results for your keyword. How strong are their domains? How many quality backlinks do they have? That is your real competition.
- On-page SEO gets you in the game. Off-page SEO wins it. You need solid on-page optimization to tell Google what your page is about, but backlinks determine whether it ranks above the competition.
- There are no hard and fast rules in SEO. Use competitive analysis as a guide, not a guarantee. Test, measure, and adjust.
What's Changed Since This Episode Aired
- Google PageRank is no longer publicly visible. Google stopped updating the public PageRank toolbar in 2016. Modern tools like Ahrefs (Domain Rating), Moz (Domain Authority), and Semrush (Authority Score) provide their own authority metrics based on backlink analysis.
- Content quality now matters much more. Google's Helpful Content Update (2022-2024) means that even with strong backlinks, thin or unhelpful content will not rank. The 80/20 has shifted slightly: backlinks still matter enormously, but content quality is now a hard prerequisite.
- E-E-A-T signals are critical. Google now evaluates Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, and Trustworthiness. In competitive niches, demonstrating real expertise can be the differentiator.
- AI Overviews in search results have changed the click-through landscape. Even if you rank on page one, an AI-generated summary may answer the query before the user clicks. Focus on keywords where users need depth, not quick answers.
- Modern keyword tools build competition analysis in. Tools like Ahrefs Keyword Difficulty score and Semrush's competitive density metrics automate much of what we discussed manually in this episode.
Resources
- Ahrefs Keyword Difficulty Checker — Automated competition analysis
- Moz Keyword Explorer — Keyword research with difficulty scores
- Backlinko Guide to Backlinks — Comprehensive resource on link building
- Subscribe to Late Night Internet Marketing
Related Episodes
Put This Into Practice
Take your keyword list from Part 1, pick your top 5 candidates, and run them through a tool like Ahrefs or Semrush. Look at the Keyword Difficulty score and examine the top 10 results. If the first page is dominated by massive authority sites with thousands of backlinks, move on to a less competitive keyword. Find the gaps where you can win. Subscribe to the Late Night Internet Marketing podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Great to have you back Mark! Haven’t listened to the whole thing yet, but got a kick out of the shout out at the beginning.
Really looking forward to where you’re going to take things going forward, with the focus on being THE resource for ethical affiliate marketing. That’s really been where I want to focus with my online adventures, so I’ll definitely be along for the ride!
Thanks — I knew you would enjoy that reference. Appreciate all your support. Great things to come!
Hi Mark, great episode, thank you.
I was delighted that you read my question about Micro Niche Finder and I look forward to your catch up with James Jones.
KC sounds great but it’s a pity there is no free trial.
Best regards
Gillian
My pleasure — it was a great question.
I sent James Jones (owner of MNF) a message. Will let you know what he says.
Regards,
Mark
Hey Gillian — there is a $7 trial to KC, by the way. Not sure if that helps or not.
Mark
Hi Mark
That’s great – thank you. I will certainly give it a road test.
Gillian
Mark,
Good to see you back. Hey I have a couple of questions for you related to the podcast.
1) What are the quickest, most ethical and reliable ways to get backlinks for your website? I find this difficult as I don’t want to use a service that provides weak backlinks and eventually get me downgraded by google.
2) After 18 months of blogging, I only have a Page Rank of 1. What would you suggest as the best way to upgrade my ranking.
As an aside, I don’t know what Google did about 6 weeks ago, but I went from having 30-40 unique visitors each day to averaging only 15-20. My visitors via organic search have fallen from 60% of my traffic to 40%. I haven’t done anything differently so I’m wondering what might have changed.
My website is http://www.DrJasonJones.com.
Thanks for all your work and willingness to share!
Jason
Hey dude. Good to be back. Sounds like we need more coffee.
Your site is beautiful, by the way.
Great questions:
1. This is a tough question, and I have a whole podcast episode planned for this. In your case, I’d be interested to look at what keywords you are targeting to understand where the competition is getting their links. You are already creating great content from what I see, so understanding what the competition is doing in your space will be key to answering this question correctly.
2. “Page Rank does not matter” is the mantra of people with high page rank — but I think those people are right. I would not worry about page rank, except to say that low PR generally means low search traffic. And since you want search traffic, PR does indeed matter. But it only matters because it means that you don’t have enough backlinks.
As for the google changes — the timing of your impact correlates to the “Payday Loan update” on June 11 — but your niche was not targeted by that update, so I doubt that is related. Panda is updating monthly right now — so depending on your backlink profile, that could be what you are seeing. Or, it could just be noise. If it makes you feel better, I see changes that I cannot explain on my own sites all the time.
Looking at your backlink profile on ahrefs, there are two trends — longterm decline and a recent spike. Neither of these explain a change in early June.
Regards,
Mark
Thanks for the answers Mark. Think I’ll put your advice to work and not worry about the Page Rank. Perhaps we can come up with some kind of link back network strategy with all the LatenightIM folks.
Looking forward to future posts on this!
Hi Mark,
You nailed this podcast. I can no longer simply lurk about. I want to take you up on your offer to talk SEO. I’ve noticed when I comment on someone’s blog that ranks higher than my own that I’m able to leap frog them. I want to continue on with this strategy.
My linkback on the comment was for my home page. Should I start leaving links for the page I wish to rank? Thanks
Thanks Al! Really appreciate the comments! You are absolutely correct that in the post-panda era, blog comments seem to be even more effective than they have been in the past. They are a great backlink strategy when done correctly because your comments add value to the internet (as opposed to some other techniques that just create spam).
As for the link in the comments — you are asking about home page links versus “deep links”. The problem with deep links is that Akismet (which most bloggers use) looks for “lots of slashes” in a URL and will mark it as spam if it has “too many slashes” or is “too long”. To protect against that, you can create a short URL on your site (using pretty links lite or similar) and 301 (not 307) redirect the short link to the page you want to promote. Does that make sense?
I have not tested this extensively — but I have done it and it seems to both help and pass link juice to the target page.
Hope that helps,
Mark
Hi Mark,
Just found your podcast! Very informative so far. Thank you for creating it! I’m listening to them daily to catch up. I have a question about keyword competition. How should we evaluate sites such as YouTube videos, Pinterest boards, etc. that are ranking in the top 5 of the keywords I’m targeting? Thanks for the feedback. On to episode 59 for me.
Crystal
Hi Mark – I left a comment earlier but I forgot to click notify me on comments – so just adding that in now as I’d love to hear the reply to my earlier message. Great content on your site and I just signed up for the emails. Looking forward to more info. I didn’t even know what WordPress was 2 months ago and now I’m hooked and bursting with ideas!!